True, Charles, but if we want "field relevant" data we have to deal with the
field, and that is by definition full of variables!
You can't have it both ways. We do lab experiments in order to control the
variables. When we go into the field we can't do that, yet that is precisely
where bees live, so critics abound...."lab data isn't relevant" and then
somebody attempts a field study and we hear "but you have too many
variables" in the field!!!
Ahh but as an Engineer or in Science you would know that if you can't
control the variables, you need to account for them mathematically.
In a situation such as this, they could have "attempted" to control mites
below some threshold, OR they could have documented the levels and put the
values into a standard matrix solution. That is not what they did! The
math is interesting, but the basic problem setup is just wrong, at least as
I see it.
Had the mite levels of the "dead" hives been monitored and valued their
weights could be accounted for, and correctly put into the math.
In this case it "seems" that the neonics helped Mite levels in Germany,
but then we want to say they made them worse in the UK? Good research can't
have it both ways in the same paper and not expect a lot of questions!
For me, the simple math of "7 hives" showing improvement exposed to neonics
is the key. I first thought there is zero chance that's correct, but in
retrospect it actually could be. Low doses may act as some sort of
medication or inoculation. BUT I don't really believe that. I suspect
they are actually pretty neutral overall and those 7 upticks, are what I
would say is nothing more than natural variations in hive growth, and I
would say the 9 negitve points are exactly the same thing.
Why would anyone see 7 plus and 9 minus and 250 no changes conclude they
were terrible and harmed the bees??
It seems this is excellent work actually, but really a convoluted
ending.... That's the troubling part. In this case those that funded the
study have to be scratching their heads and saying, "hell with it" no more
cooperation, were going to get hosed one way or the other.
Thanks for the discussion!
Charles
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