>
>  >In the first, artificially skeptical case, we would still calculate that
> the treatments
> killed 2279-1240 = 1039 more mites than the background natural drop -- even
> that natural drop is exaggerated.
>

The 10-20 baseline was what I see on your chart--it is not "my number."
 You can't extrapolate from that, since it is suppressed due to your
obvious accelerated mite drops due to the treatments.  My point is that you
can look at your chart, and draw a nearly horizontal line through the
baseline mite drop between spikes.

If your treatment actually had an effect (forget your fanciful
calculations), then that baseline should have clearly dropped down stepwise
after each treatment, and by the end should have been near zero (not 4,
since that is not that far from the baseline).

>
> >Quod erat demonstrandum.
>

Hardly!  Latin back to you:
Cum hoc ergo propter hoc--Correlation does not imply causation!

Allen, the only reason that I'm belaboring this thread is that recently
there was a discussion about alternative interpretations of scientific
studies.  I'm simply using your small "study," and the unsupported
conclusions that you drew from it as an example.

Medhat and others have clearly demonstrated that *properly applied* oxalic
vapor can bring mite levels down.  But your data set cannot be used to
support the hypothesis that that is what actually happened in your hives.

This is not a criticism of your study--I found it very interesting to read
your learning curve about sticky board counts, and to see the spikes
following oxalic vapor treatment.  But that's as far as I think that you
can legitimately go as far as conclusions, unless you do either a cleanup
treatment or in-hive alcohol wash and brood sample to confirm the actual
amount of mites still happily residing in the comfort of your tall, warm,
styrofoam-insulated varroa hotels.

-- 
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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