You have a lot of responses, but only you can decide.

From your questions and the constraints you explained, I think you 
had a pretty good idea what you were going to do before you asked 
and just wanted a second opinion.

It seems you simply want to divide your hives in half and wind up 
with all the hives being about the same after the new queens settle 
down.

You are aware of the risk of drifting, the need to divide in a way that 
will result in a good age distribution over time.  The amount and ages 
of brood for each half is easily calculated from that.

The fact that some of the splits will fail has to be taken into 
consideration and you will either have to combine the losers with 
winners or try to get them a queen after the failure becomes 
apparent.  That can be a waste of effort of too much time goes by.

There is also the question of the timing of target flows for the new 
hives, so only you can make these decisions.

My feeling is that you are going to have good success if you keep all
these points in mind.

As for absconding, that is extremely unusual in this part of the world.  
Do you often see that where you are?

Bees can be confined in many ways, and short of moving the two 
miles and then back after a while, is the only way to ensure that 
your splits do not drift out enough to be harmed.

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