Excellent post, Grant.  

I'm a firm believer that the biggest thing holding beekeepers back are the beekeepers themselves.  

I heard some numbers last year that in the previous 4 years, we had went from 1000 commercial beekeepers in the USA down to 800.  For sideliners, from 4000 to 4500.  For hobbyists, 110,000 to 150,000 now.

I consider hobbyists to basically be a non-issue for the industry, and sideliners to be negligible.  Commercials manage an estimated 99% of the hives in America.  All the hobbyist and sideliner hives could die out, and it would not impact beekeeping.

So let's look at the commercials.  The average age is...gray.  That's what I see a lot of.  Commercials under age 40 are really uncommon.  I think it would be a safe assumption that most commercial beekeepers learned how to manage hives 30+ years ago.

What were things like 30 years ago?
No varroa.  That's a biggie.
No Chinese/foreign competition.
Urban sprawl.  I've seen many farms sold off in 5 acre lots.
Used to, there were a lot of hobby farmers.  We might call them sideliners.  They worked a regular job, but farmed on the side.  A lot of those are gone now.  They were marginal producers, and the economics squeezed them out.
When the ethanol subsidies came into play, we saw a lot of acres go into corn.  Even CRP acres got put into corn. 
Livestock farming in my area is gone for the most part.  They can't make any money at it.  (With the exception of chicken barns.)  So farmers are tearing out fencerows, and turning pasture into crops.
30 years ago, occasionally someone would buy a property, sell the timber, and pay for the property.  That doesn't happen anymore.  I wonder how well mature trees bear nectar, as opposed to young trees.  Not to mention old trees have more cavities for wild colonies.
Folks tell me that 30+ years ago, there were swarms that were as big as bushel baskets.  Now, swarms are volleyball sized.
Property taxes go up.  Many folks can't afford to leave ground fallow.  So they are planting crops on it or doing something with it to offset taxes.
Folks didn't mow their lawns every 3 days 30 years ago.  And they didn't try to kill every dandelion they saw.
30 years ago, townships mowed the weeds beside the road with a sidearm mower.  They mowed about 3 feet.  Back then, country folks would walk along roads picking wild blackberries and raspberries.  You can't anymore.  They try to mow as far as they can.  Usually 15 feet past the edge of the road.  That additional 12 feet on each side is a loss of 2.9 acres for every mile of road.
And we have more roads now.  There's more acreage lost for every new road.
Since 2007, beekeepers have made more money from pollination than from honey production.
Folks are using more chemicals around the house.  Used to, they pulled weeds.  Now they just spray it down.
Used to, everyone had a garden.  Now, a garden is usually 2 tomato plants in the backyard.
30 years ago, we were a cash society.  Now we are a credit society.  Money management skills deteriorate, squeezing out even more marginal producers.
30 years ago, folks were more self-reliant.  Now, you hear more and more people crying for government to save us from all adversity.  More regulations, subsidies, bailouts, research funding, or welfare of some variety.
The list goes on and on.

How many commercial beekeepers are still trying to run bees the way they learned 30+ years ago?  How many are looking around trying to find examples of success to learn from, or are they all just struggling to stay afloat and too busy with the day to day things?  How many of them are just looking forward to retirement?

"He would, if he could, but he won't, so he can't, and
he could, if he would, but he can't, so he won't."

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