Hello,

The discussion on AHB seemed to turn into one on raising or buying queens.  The issue is or was what can or should be done to slow or stop the spread of AHB throughout the US.  When I first started beekeeping AHB was still below Mexico.  The obvious question was "can they arrive and become established here in Pennsylvania?  The answer then was, "based on there southern migration in South America they probably would not become established above the 35°N Latitude, or somewhere in North Carolina.  I think there is good evidence to support that in South America where the range may increase in prolonged mild weather but is usually corrected during normal cold spells.  

The above does not take into account queens and packages being shipped north or the annual migration of colonies for pollination.  Bob Harrison noted that closing a border to a certain state would only hurt beekeepers in that state.  I totally agree with that statement.  This cannot be looked at according to political boundaries.  Using good science, something overlooked often when dollars are in the mix, I think a map can be drawn showing the predicted future expansion according to conditions necessary to support a sustainable population.  That map should then be compared to one that shows the current expansion.  The current map becomes the "Hot Zone".  States on the future map, not within the hot zone but capable of sustaining the population, become the "Warm Zone".  The rest of the country is the "Cold Zone".  Control efforts could then be tailored to each area.  Surely there would be no initial value in setting  traps in upstate NY or New England, but it could be of great value in SC.

There are a number of possibilities but I am sure the nay Sayers will quickly point out how it won't work. Folks like Mike Palmer and Kirk Webster have shown that the north does not have to be dependent on the south to stay in business.  As Michael has often said, you just have to change the way you do things.

If we would have taken the same approach with Varroa 15+ years ago where would we be today?  We were told, "it can't be stopped so just buy your strips and shut up and don't get in the way of anyone really trying to make a living with bees."  That is now water under the bridge.  But other than the way AHB can and will be spread, it cannot be compared to mites, hive beetle, foulbrood or any other beekeeping problem.  

In the Mid Atlantic region the current plan is one of defeat.  It assumes we can't keep them out so lets plan on how we deal with them.  In most of the US it is legal to own a pit bull terrier.  But just try to put one or two in a yard next to a day care center.  Most parents would not want there children exposed and would fight the dog owner or take their children to another center.  The dogs could be completely harmless, but it won't matter.  In my part of the state people are encroaching on agriculture.  It is not like out west or in Texas where there may be miles between individuals.  My bees must be able to coexist with humans.  There is no alternative, and all the education we try to do will go up in smoke after the first serious stinging incident hits the news.

I have spent most of my career in product safety and risk assessment.  There is only one truth.  PERCEPTION IS REALITY.  It doesn't matter who is right or what the facts are.  If someone thinks they will be hurt by something they will fear it and work to remove it.  I guarantee that if we allow the spread of AHB many folks reading this will not be keeping bees in the future.  Possibly a few will wish they never had.

Bob Harrison mentioned liability insurance and the way it is available today.  In the future it will be more risk based, just like automotive insurance.  Everyone  will pay a lot and the more colonies  you have the more you will pay.  All we need is a few good lawsuits to get the insurance companies attention.  It is a given that agriculture cannot function without bees.  However, peanuts could replace almonds really quickly if almonds cost $50 a pound.

No one is at fault here.  There are no good or bad guys in this situation.  This is a serious threat and we have to work together to get through it.  We have to learn the facts and deal with this in a manner that is beneficial to the entire industry.  

Ron

Ron Bogansky
Kutztown, (eastern) PA, USA

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