When speaking of IAPV with regard to sudden colony collapse, one should
keep in mind that the RNA viruses exist as quasispecies, that is, as a
"cloud" of variants.

We humans don't live in fear of influenza virus--we live in fear of certain
strains.  It is the same with bees.  Dr. Stephen Martin's publication last
year about DWV strains in Hawaii should have made that clear.

When Beeologics inoculated healthy colonies with "IAPV," we attempted to
propagate a specific strain that was present in rapidly-collapsing
colonies.  "IAPV" was already present in my operation, yet was not causing
noticeable colony collapse.  Ditto for N ceranae.

But when we inoculated those colonies with that specific strain of IAPV,
bees suddenly began dying en masse.  Come colonies depopulated quickly;
others did so in the ensuing months.  My observations suggest that chilling
events have something to do with the virulence of the combined pathogens.
A further (as yet unpublished) follow up trial that I ran suggested that
nosema was a critical player.

>"Non-CCD colonies" were not verified as such by going back later to see how
those "non-CCD" colonies had faired [sic].  This calls into question the
attempt
to define "false positives" versus "true positives", and the "positive
predictive values" calculated in Table 2.

Jim brings up an excellent point, and one of the major shortcomings of the
Lipkin analysis.  At that point in time, few could recognize a colony in
the process of collapse (signs are a reduced bee:brood ratio and specific
changes in behavior).  So the "non-CCD" assessment of some colonies could
well have been premature.  To her credit, Dr. Cox-Foster followed up with a
greenhouse trial by inoculating colonies with "IAPV" and observed a rapid
increase in bee mortality, with the affected bees apparently attempting to
fly as far as they could from the hives.

Again, I am NOT saying that all sudden colony depopulations were caused
solely by IAPV, but in my review of the published studies, field trials
that I've run, as well was discussion with most of the major researchers,
certain combinations of viruses, nosema, and perhaps other pathogens,
coupled with chilly weather, and  poor nutrition, appear to be able to
initiate positive feedback loops that can lead to sudden colony
depopulation.  Some strains of IAPV and its closely-related brethren KBV
and ABPV appear to be potential initiators, especially if varroa is there
to act as a stressor and vector.

We should have more concrete answers to this question when the Monsanto
team releases their results, which include quantification not only of virus
titers, but specifically, to what extent each virus was actually
replicating (by using primers for negative strands).

BTW, it will be interesting to compare the Monsanto nosema data from 90
hives each in three different parts of the country to that which I've been
collecting for a year from a group of (initially) 36 hives (monthly
prevalence and spore counts).  I just finished cranking the completion of
12 month's worth of data last night.

Teaser: there is a striking negative correlation in my hives in the Calif
foothills between both nosema prevalence and spore count with mean monthly
temperature.  My results confirm those found by Chen last year for Taiwan
(Nosema ceranae infection intensity highly correlates with temperature, J.
Invert Path).

-- 
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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