from the article Charles mentioned: 
> all proposed swarming triggers occur as a function of the _ultimate_ cause of a colony reaching replacement stability, the point at which the queen has been laying eggs at her maximal rate.

This statement is correct in pointing out that the various so-called triggers, or symptoms, or what-all are NOT the ultimate cause of swarming. But it also cannot be "laying eggs at her maximal rate" either, because small colonies swarm. A crowded brood nest, for example, could be a _symptom_ that the colony is getting ready to swarm, rather than the "cause."

I have long believed that swarming is a basic reproductive instinct, and the queen and her colony try to go at a time when their chances are maximal. But, bees sometimes swarm in late summer, which is usually suicide in a cold climate. The ancestors of cold climate bees lived in tropical or sub-tropical regions where swarming could succeed any time of year. 

The adaptation to cold climate could have selected for bees that swarm in May-June, leading to better chance of survival. In desert regions the best time to swarm might be whenever there are abundant resources, regardless of what month it is.

PLB

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