Another data point. I listen to the podcast "Pollinator nation" from time
to time, and this one

http://pollination.libsyn.com/38-dr-ramesh-sagili-the-elusive-secrets-of-honey-bee-nutrition-and-controlling-varroa-mites

had the observation that, in two different pollinator locations, in one the
mite loads were low and the other high, the low one did not suffer mite
bombs where the high one did. They also discovered migration from collapsed
colonies and measured the extent. I think that was the study that showed
migration that has been commented on here on the list and got me thinking
about mite bombs.

So if you are in an area where Varroa is controlled, all is well. If not
prepare for the Autumn onslaught. Goes along with Medhat's observation.

The reason I am trying to determine if it is the bees that cause the rapid
collapse is that I have no problem seeing that an influx of mites will lead
to winter death or a weak spring colony that might not make it through the
next year, but it does not explain, to my satisfaction, the sudden fall
collapse and death of a once low mite, disease free (or as much as any
colony is disease free) colony. How could going from near zero mites to
several hundreds all at once cause a sudden collapse? A sudden influx of
several hundred infected bees seems to make sudden collapse more feasible.

It could also explain the death of an apiary in the Fall. If the beekeeper
treats in the late summer or early fall and has low mite loads, all seems
well going into winter.But with a major invasion from a nearby collapsed
apiary. you could have a cascade effect and within about a month or so,
becasue of collapsing hives in the invaded apiary, those newly infected
colonies collapse and invade other colonies in the apiary.You lose the
whole apiary and yet have little indication of what happened becasue the
mite loads would be a bit higher but not indicative of collapse. Also there
would be minimal indicators of Varroa collapse because the bees were done
in by transmitted virus by other bees as well as their own hive's bees
which became infected.. Plus, every mite would be infected by the infected
bees, both from away and the ones in the original hive which just helps the
collapse along.

Which gets me back to having to treat in October, since most colonies which
collapse in our area do so in September or October. After that, they end up
stuck where they are becasue of the cold.

If I took a mite count in October with an alcohol wash, with about say 300
new infected mites and bees and a low of 40k bees in the colony, the mite
count would be between 2 and 3. Even 600 would only get you to the point of
treat or not treat.So you would think you were fine for the winter.When the
collapse occurred, there would be no explication.What you would hear is
"They were fine. They were healthy, had low Varroa counts after treatment
and large colonies. Then, (fill in a time scale- "in Fall, September,
October, month later..), they were all dead. It was not Varroa becasue the
hives were inspected and there was no trace of any major varroa
infestation." Because it was the bees, not Varroa.

Terrible thing to say, but i am looking forward to the final elimination of
the non-treated colonies in our area.. To show I have some compassion for
them,, I spoke to a non-treatment beekeeper who lived right across the
street from me and learned that I was wasting my time trying to convince
them to treat and save their bees. It is a faith thing. They lost every
colony every winter. Fortunately, they moved. They still lost their bees
but did say, just after they moved, that they lost them in my area because
there was a beekeeper near them that treated. I recently heard that they
now treat. So I am a good guy again.

Bill Truesdell
Bath, Maine

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