>> There are actually other ways than the Bond method, although that method 
>> is the simplest, and the one that occurs in nature.

> well, i'm having a hard time imagining any method who's predictions will 
> correlate near 100% with the bond method.  we keep bees in nature (well, 
> our own corrupted version of nature) with whatever management practices we 
> use.  if success is survival, i can't imagine a method that can predict 
> survival accurately.

I have had the feeling that this question is not a simple as it might seem, 
and concluded the joker in this deck is chance.

The Bond method depends on luck as  much as on the traits necessary for 
survival, and bad luck can take many a good candidate out of the running, 
excessively and often lethally narrowing the pool of survivors in any closed 
population.

This is a serious flaw in the method, IMO.  That is unless, we decide that 
luck is a heritable trait.  Who knows, maybe it is.  It is certainly a 
desirable one. 

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