> Looking back over a period of time, is it not logical to ask the following: Is
> it the amount of honey present on the market that has tended to keep prices
> depressed? or, Is it the amount of fraudulent material on the market,
> successfully sold to relatively unsuspecting customers that has tended to keep
> the prices depressed?

Yes to both.

At any time there are producers entering and producers leaving the honey
industry.  Argentina has doubled hive numbers in the last 10 years (from 1.4
million to 2.8 million hives), presumably because it is profitable given
their set of circumstances there.  Their selling price has been around
US$0.45/lb landed destination port (CFR).  At the same time the US hive
numbers have continued a slow decrease that has been happening as long back
as my stats go (1961), presumably because circumstances there make beekeeping
less profitable.

see www.airborne.co.nz/wldstats.html

for some visual trends of some of the major World honey producers.

More adulteration (assuming it applies cheaper "product" onto the market)
just adds pressure to this system, but is not the cause of lower prices.

The key issues with honey production are cost of labour, production per hive,
and selling price per kilo/lb.  US honey production is a victim of the USA's
success as a technologically advanced nation.  i.e. the cost of labour makes
it uncompetitive.

The greatest long term hope for honey prices World wide is for more World
consumption.  If China's consumption was the same as New Zealand's (1.8 kilos
per person) they would consume nearly twice total World production. China
only consumes around 100gms per person at present.  Producing and Marketing
quality honey to the increasingly affluent Chinese consumer could have a
profound effect on World honey prices in a relatively short period.  Ditto
India.

Lurching from one CVD inspired windfall to another is not unlike a drug
addict living for the next "high".  Current high prices in the World will end
up sending the wrong signals to the wrong people and result in extended and
increased pain in the long run.  IMHO.

Regards,
Peter Bray
_________________________________________________________
Airborne Honey Ltd., Pennington St, PO Box 28, Leeston,
New Zealand Fax 64-3-324-3236,  Phone 64-3-324-3569
http://www.airborne.co.nz  [log in to unmask]