Ok, I've only 35 years with bees, usually running a few hundred, but I've  
done project in commercial operations with thousands.
 
I'm glad to see this discussion.  I've gotten runty, poor queens from  
grafted queens, and I've seen same from emergency cells off-season (say late  
summer in MT).
 
But, I've also seen really good queens from splits, just as long as its a  
time of year that bees have drones, good weather, etc.
 
It never made any sense to me why a colony shouldn't be able to produce  
good queens if they have a supply of eggs/young larvae, good bee population, 
and  right time of year.  Of course, I always look for a frame with eggs.   
Since eggs aren't fed, tear down and rebuilding of the cell shouldn't be much 
 different than a human transplanting an egg - somehow, I'd bet on the bees 
doing  this right.
 
I do agree with the down time.  In MT, we get our nectar flows  starting in 
June, dry up by August.  Lose a queen during that time, and the  colony 
tends to drop off in population, just when you need the most bees.   I've lots 
of data showing that this impacts honey production - so - I'm for  getting a 
store bought queen in to the hive, and fast.  But, for a large  beekeeper, 
it may be more cost effective to toss in a frame of eggs/larvae and  walk 
away.  If its the colony in your back yard, order up the queen.
 
But, I like the queens that bees raise themselves in their own hives -  
suspect they may have some advantages honed by millions of years of  evolution.
 
Jerry
 
P.S.  these comments are based more on experience and impressions than  any 
rigorous studies.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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