<The numbers I see show double or more the number of mites>
I think the issue isn't just the number of mites transferred, but what they
end up doing when they get there.  If they transfer in fall while brood is
still being reared you increase the mite load at a critical time, and those
mites will begin to exponentially increase as long as brood is being
reared.  The starting number makes a big difference in this case.  In
addition the population is also decreasing, and as long as brood is still
being reared those dying bees aren't taking very many mites with them
because they are still in the brood.  Besides we're still dealing with %
infestation, and say your levels went up 2% in a hive due to drift/robbing
etc (not sure if that is conservative or not), that's an increase of
400-600 mites in a decent sized colony. I'm shooting from the hip here
because I don't have good numbers I can find easily for mite growth curve
in the fall, but if you consider a doubling every brood cycle, and say
three more brood cycles in the hive you wind up with an additional
1600-2400 mites... and then the population goes down.

Maybe I'm wrong, didn't have time to dig up numbers, but it seemed to make
sense to me.

Jeremy
West Michigan

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