>Do you know about how many quick splits will succeed on average?

We used to split a thousand or so that way and get at least 85% 
success.  

We split on May 10th and after, which means there was a flow, 
somewhat settled weather, drone rearing well underway and many 
already emerged.

Timing is everything, and the colony must be strong in the first place, 
with brood in all stages in both boxes.  Tipping the double forward, 
there have to be bees on most bottom bars at mid-day.  It is best not 
to let them get so strong that they get swarmy, though.

We usually put a deadout or other empty brood box on the floor and 
set the split on top.  Where the hives were on pallets, we set the split 
close beside the parent on a single floor.  The two were visually similar, 
so bees usually divided quite evenly between the original and the 
split.  We use auger holes.  Not sure that the normal floor would get 
such an even drift.  

When splitting watch for queen cells on the bottom bars.  They are a 
valuable head start, and it is easy to wreck them by just setting the 
box down on another.

The duds were not a huge loss, since they were full of young bees 
which had not been used up, so we just used them as seconds on any 
queenright hives that looked a little weak.

Much of this is described in detail at my website under 'Selected Topics" 
and scattered through diary entries.

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