We were discussing *long term, not next-day* forecasts and the 19th is not long term.  It was only two days warning and even then it was indefinite.. 

Looking more long term,  as I reported previously *when I left , only a week before*, only a bit of wind and likely rain was expected. 

In hurricane season I consult *all* the forecasts daily as do my friends.  Detailed weather forecasts are a part of the morning VHF net.  

On the twentieth, I was on my other boat at Poet's Cove, BC, and wrote in my records, "I see HURRICANE NORMA will likely pass close to La Paz and drop as much as seven inches of rain."  No warning of wind damage. 

That was *one day* ahead.  Meantime my friends were stripping off the headsail for me in my absence just in case. 

We all know what really happened.  60 boats were wrecked locally.

No one who knows the Baja trusts the forecasts -- other than the former owners of those 60 boats, I guess.

Mine was tied securely deep in the safest marina in La Paz.

Some are believers, some are doubters. 

Just sayin'.

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