> >There are far more than 4 possible factors involved. The most recent work
> by Dennis
> vanEngelsdorp, et al, refers to *61 meaningful variables*. And, they
> concluded that there
> was *no evidence* supporting pesticides as causing or precipitating colony
> collapse.
>

Thanks, Pete--saved me the trouble!

Bob, I feel that there has been enough sound research done on CCD that we
can move away from unfounded speculation and opinion.  We can now test our
hypotheses against hard data.  Over the past couple of years, you have
offered up quite a variety of hypotheses for the cause of CCD--that is, when
you were claiming that CCD existed, which you appear to oscillate back and
forth on.

The big question is, is (was) CCD yet another episodic collapse event, as
have been named on this List a number of times?  These historical collapses
happened before modern pesticides, before varroa and tracheal mite, before
Nosema ceranae, before diesel fuel additives, before neonicotinoids, before
miticides, before long-haul trucking, before cell phones.

These events were episodic, not periodic, and did not necessarily occur
worldwide, so it is unlikely that they were due to the solar influences
mentioned by Juanse.

However, they do have common denominators--they generally follow poor
forage, and are generally associated with a cold weather event.  They also
spontaneously resolve themselves.  They fit the epidemiology of infectious
parasites.

"Epidemic diseases are defined as the temporary accumulation of dangerous
infections diseases in certain areas. They are based on the principles of
monocausality of Henle and Koch and represent the most important group of
monocausal infectious diseases. Tight ecological relations exist between
epidemic diseases and environment. The ecosystem encloses all living
organisms as well as the inanimate environment (e.g. soil, water, air,
waste). .... Any change of the environment causes enduring effects on the
development and progression of epidemic diseases. Many epidemic diseases
correlate with certain geographical zones. ... A further evidence for the
relation of environment and occurrence of epidemic diseases are the seasonal
and secular rhythmics in the progress of epidemic diseases. ... the
recombination of two different infectious agents in a common host may cause
evolutionary jumps."  Mayr, A. (1990) [Environment and occurrence of
epidemics].  Zentralbl Hyg Umweltmed. 190(1-2):1-12.

Randy Oliver

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