As beekeepers we can control many of these variables (health of bees
(including queen age), number of bees to the volume, fuel level,
ventilation, insulation, location and the bee yards micro-climates)... As I
say in some of my bee talks, wintering bees is complicated and I flash this
slide. I also discuss how wintering is about 2 core behaviours, in cluster
(system 1) and out of cluster/enclosure (system 2). We can't control the
weather but we can mitigate or reduce its effects. There is no silver
bullet but it is up to us to develop a set of consistent practices and have
enough curiosity to learn from your failures. I have data from down in the
Virginia area that shows behaviour that tracks or doesn't track to outside
temperatures depending on what the bees want (time of year - early energy
conservation (20C - cluster) - late winter - brood rearing (35C -
enclosure). No insulation required there but some use it successfully.
Right is what works for you and your location.

My weather data is down to the 5 min interval that I average up to the hour
to match my hive sensors. I use Pareto Principles in my workplace and it
tends to apply to most things, 20% of variables account for 80% of the
results (variations). In my location, managing the cold through insulation
is that 20% along with the standard bee health (mites, Nosema/Amoeba,
Queens) is a must for all beekeepers. My data collection evolved from 1
sensor per hive, to 3 sensors, a microscope, lab disease testing, honey
analysis and a weather station, to 13 for a single and 22 for a double plus
all that other stuff. As the amount of data collected increased, my
"models/theories" evolved (thermo, health, honey, weather, bee
biology/behaviours). I have also added controls (hive setups) with no bees
into my data collection. Those basic "thermodynamic tools" give you
direction and highlight trends and relationships. Excel (whatever tool)
allows you to recalculate your numbers at every measured interval (macros)
and run basic statistical analysis. Thermal mass and insulation adds a
6-12hr lag in the numbers vs no-insulation. Cold stress, constant breaking
of cluster has an impact on the bees. My favourite sensor position now is
the one on the bottom board as it lets me see clustering behaviour
(in/out), cleansing events, and spontaneous heating events.

Most of the cold environment bee physiology studies I have read are focused
on an individual bee or a colony of bees in standard wooden boxes or less.
So really they are studying the biology of clustering of bees (System 1). I
have yet to read any studies where they studied/measured system 2 and
system 1 together using modern technology on live colonies. Szabo, Mobus
and Farrar are the closest things. Looking at my 5 minute CO2 hive data so
far under real conditions the metabolic rate (morning vs afternoon, daily
peaks), system 1 vs system 2, all within fluctuating outside temperatures
and the natural (diurnals) makes for some interesting head scratching.

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