Justin Schmidt wrote:
 
>People, including beekeepers love to worry about diminishingly improbably
>events.  Take for example the ibuprofen flurry lately.  Simple statistics
>can be enlightening.  About 1-2 % of  the general public is
>hypersensitive (=allergic) and, say, there are 10 million beekeepers
>worldwide who get stung and who could or would go to a doctor after an
>adverse reaction.  And further assume that 1 out of  10 weird (ie.
>unpredicted) reactions seen by doctors get into print as anecdotal
>reports.  That would mean that our ibuprofen reactions occur only 1 in
>15,000  (10,000,000/.015 = 150,000 'allergic' beekeepers/.1 [only 1 of 10
>cases gets reported] = 15,000 'allergic ' beekeepers per ibuprofen
>incident).  Seems to me that is a pretty small risk.  Moreover, only
>17-20 people die per year in the U.S. of bee stings out of a pool of 5-10
>million 'allergic' people (many of whom believe "the next sting will kill
>me"), so even if you have an adverse reaction, the risk of death is below
>meaningful measurement.  Fascinating, isn't it?
 
Etc.
 
   The same sort of fear persists with respect to rattlesnake bites.  My
advice to those worried about bee stings or snake bites?  If you are really
concerned about not taking risks, just stay off the freeway!
 
                                                                Adrian
 
Adrian M. Wenner                         (805) 893-2838 (UCSB office)
Ecol., Evol., & Marine Biology           (805) 893-8062  (UCSB FAX)
Univ. of Calif., Santa Barbara           (805) 963-8508 (home office & FAX)
Santa Barbara, CA  93106
 
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