>> so if the average temperature for the day (the sum of the daily
>> high and low, divided by 2) is greater than 55 degrees,

> What concerns me is the simplicity of this averaging...

> Taking 12 deg C as the trigger point, I can have a day with a low
> of 5 deg that occurs for 21 hours out of 24 and a high of 20 deg
> that occurs for 3 hrs or I could have a snap frost of 0 deg for an
> hour with 25 deg for the rest of the day, both give an average of
> 12.5, but I seriously doubt that the growth would be the same under
> the two different conditions.

> While the figures I have chosen are extreme and would vary in a smooth
> periodic way, they are not beyond the bounds of possibility.

This is the underlying point - temperatures do tend to slowly warm
up towards spring in a smooth progression.  Yes, extreme weather can
happen, and it certainly would throw one off by a few degree-days.
But I doubt if anyone really needs a more precise mechanism, as
knowing "the bloom will start this weekend" is useful to a beekeper,
where knowing "the bloom will be Sunday at 1:30pm" would be just plain silly.

        jim

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