> Can anyone point out error in my logic?

The logic is prolly OK.  The assumptions are generally where theories go 
wrong IMO.

ARS has a free program called VarroaPop which can be downloaded.  Also we 
have discussed various models, including at least on online form  here in 
the past.  A quick search of the archives should turn these discussions up. 
They were fairly exhaustive, as I recall.  Sorry I can't do it for you since 
I am not connected to the 'net at the moment I am writing this.

(Maybe Aaron should change the tagline to include a pointer the archives or 
mention they are at the address mentioned there, since many don't seem to 
know about them). 

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