From: allen <[log in to unmask]>
>The Bond method depends on luck as  much as on the traits necessary for survival.

well, if luck weren't a major factor in every experiment or trial, there would be no need to run more than on experimental subject to prove something.  a well run trial could be done with one beehive, that would return an idealized and repeatable result.  the bond method is no different than any other selection criteria in this manner.

large data sets (lots of hives), and running the same tests under many conditions (or in many different years independently) is what we use for all trials in order to minimize the overall impact of chance.

let's not forget, that chance is part of the selection criteria that nature actually does use, and the way our (or in this case, the bee's) genetic dice are rolled and combined is, somewhat optimized for longterm survival of the honeybee.  so while chance cannot be bred for (unless you are a larry niven fan), the way genes split and combine from generation to generation, with unused or undesirable genes having the ability to lurk for generations without being expressed or eliminated, and no one failure causing the trait to disappear.  

Bees have somewhat of a sophisticated system in this regard.  A drone is genetically more like the sperm of a "father queen" in mating than it is he a father, queens mate many times creating several subfamilies, not all of which need to be the best in any way aspect to be the best as a whole. a hopelessly queenless hive will develop laying workers, using all of the resources of the doomed hive in one last ditch effort to spread its genetics (and as something about the queens genetics may or may not have contributed to the state of queenlessness, the genetic makeup of the drones produced is split between a random haploid selection of the failed queen and that of the particular "father queen" that fathered the worker).

The whole system is rigged in order to take chance into account, and to let reinforcement and elimination of genes happen over a number of generations rather than the elimination of specific genes with every early frost, drought year, or disease breakout.

Although I understand the advantages of II, it is generally used to circumvent the mechanisms described above, and when applied with just a few human defined traits in mind quickly leads to inbreeding and the elimination of genes that are necessary for robust survival.  This is clear when you consider some of the popluar hybrid bees of the past.

Randy Quinn, who did much of the field work for the starline and midnight lines described the individual inbred lines used for these hybrids as too weak to care for themselves without being constantly fed brood and stores from healthier hives...and we are all aware of the lack of hybrid vigor one sees from subsequent generations.

The bond method, and the mechanisms bees use to pass on heritable traits via genetics, are much better designed to account for chance than our human designed methods.

deknow

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