> And then there is the issue of models.

Personally, I can't see how any thinking person can give most models any 
credibility unless all the parameters are independent and known, well 
and unambiguously understood -- and reliably predictable through time.

In any complex model, the parameters are so interrelated and 
incompletely understood that using such models is little better than 
using chicken entrails or tea leaves to backstop an argument, but far 
more convincing in current times.

IMO, many, if not most, models are merely a smokescreen for the opinions 
of those who develop them and the instances where they correspond to any 
reality are often due to backfitting and chance.

IMO. the fact that many elaborate models predict the past better than 
the future is no co-incidence and IMO relying on models for anything 
more than hints is a fool's errand

             ***********************************************
The BEE-L mailing list is powered by L-Soft's renowned
LISTSERV(R) list management software.  For more information, go to:
http://www.lsoft.com/LISTSERV-powered.html

Guidelines for posting to BEE-L can be found at:
http://honeybeeworld.com/bee-l/guidelines.htm