>Loss of forage is not new

It certainly is for the bulk of commercial bees.  The conversion of lands
in the Dakotas, plus the widespread planting of Roundup Ready corn and soy
have rapidly changed the availability of forage more many major commercial
operations.

>Viruses are not new, Bailey identified all the major types and declared
them present in most colonies; they don't cause mortality at low levels.

The degree of virus presence, as well as their transmission, in colonies
has changed substantially since the introduction of parasitic mites.  See
the findings of Frazier from Africa.

>Nosema ceranae may have been here unnoticed for decades, as Traver and
Fell report.

Bart Smith's data clearly document the invasion of N ceranae in the early
2000's.  Those of us who have been looking through microscopes have watched
the wave of invasion, and its slow subsidence.

 >Varroa is not new, by any stroke of the imagination.

C'mon Pete, don't be silly.  When fluvalinate and coumaphos failed around
2003, varroa again became a major problem for many beekeepers.  That is
what is new about it.

Our current rate of high winter losses started just as the first two
synthetic miticides failed, concurrent with the invasion of N ceranae,
concurrent with an epidemic of a particularly nasty strain of IAPV,
concurrent with a number of drought and weather events that left colonies
nutritionally stressed, concurrent with increased demand for hives for
almond pollination, which caused many beekeepers to change their
established practices.  There was a perfect storm that came together for a
few years.

We are on the tail end of that storm, and many operations are thriving,
easily covering their losses, since it is clearly profitable to do so.  But
as you say, it required adaptation.


-- 
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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