Just for your information and to confirm what some may have been thinking,
you are right, I do not have a life. I bruised my heel more than a week
ago, and did not give it the rest it needed so now I am treating it
gingerly (rest) which means I do not get out much. So my main amusement is
setting fires on the internet.

Another one-

Last night I attended our local State Beekeeper' s chapter and a census was
taken on winter survival. What came from it can be looked at in a couple of
ways.

First, based on the number of colonies that went into the winter and those
that came out: 20.5% winter kill.

But, based on the individual beekeepers: 28% winter kill average.

The bias is that only one beekeeper had more than 6 hives and they had 50
and was the most successful. Just like Stan, about 15%.

If you remove them, then the number of colonies was 33% winter kill and
29.5% for all beekeepers.

Obviously there is nothing new here, a  large number among a lot of small
ones has a disproportionate influence on the over all numbers. But the
other side is also true, you can have a small number of beekeepers who
suffer major losses disproportionately influence the outcome.

Note, when the large beekeeper was removed, the number of colonies that did
not survive the winter went up by 12.5% but the average for all beekeepers
did not significantly change! Same principle but in reverse. The large
beekeeper only counts as one data point among all the data points, so their
success rate is mixed in with all of them So if they have 15% winter kill
and the rest have 30%, it barely moves the result.

The reason for my post is the 50% number that has been quoted as winter
kill for this winter. I know of no official census that arrived at that
number other than Jeff Pettis said so. Where did he get the number?

My census is right in the range of past winters here in Maine. The good
beekeepers have come out fine with losses in the 15% range while others
have had difficulties. Over 40% of our group lost no bees. Only one lost
all their bees and they went in with one hive. One had three hives run over
by a snow plow. (Even that is unusual for Maine.) So, for our neck of the
woods, it has not been an unusual winter as far as bee survival. Almost
every person was able to identify what led to their loss and almost all
revolved around mites.

Supposedly we have had 50% or more losses this winter. My guess is that the
50% number will be confined to commercial pollinators. Even then, who did
the census? Back in the day, during my government work, I learned never to
trust numbers ending with a 0 or 5, with 0 being the least trustworthy.
Also millions with $100k rounded off to single numbers (It will cost a
million five- with the 5 being $500,000.00). They were usually SWAGs
(Scientific wild a$$ guess) and had only an approximate tie to reality. So
if Jeff and the rest want to really baffle us with BS, then the winter kill
was 52.7%. No one can argue that.

Bill Truesdell
Bath, Maine

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