I've spent a bit of time in modeling colony buildup.  With small clusters in cool-night regions, there isn't enough thermoregulated brood area for the queen to hit full laying capacity.  From that point on, the buildup rate is determined by the birth rate of workers vs their death rate.  



Very much the issue here!  Which is why we manage splits differently every season.   Never make a small split on timing.  But on weather.   Need to have good warm night.   Nucs are also stacked together to conserve heat.

Single box splits,  sheltered areas, or just expanding doubles are all keys to good splits.   Thermoregulation is actually the biggest key for me.  

We had a guy from Chicago come down this spring to run on Canola.  Great guy,  but he split to hard and the hives didn't do anything.  Tiny tiny growth.   Doubles right next to him expanded to exponentially.

Never done any counting,  but a expansion rate of only 500 a day seems reasonable.  That would be only  a 3lb package in 3 weeks.  Typicaly it takes 5 lbs of bees to fill a deep,  and we split deeps every 6 weeks. That time of year.


The other key is drawn comb.  A split or nuc that also has to draw comb will move at 1/3 the speed.


Charles

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