> IBM, who trumpets their own model as superior...

I don't know about trumpeting, but one would think they should have a good perspective on what works best and cherry pick what works best. 

Hint: Nothing does, but people want answers to the unanswerable. and some systems get it right enough of the time to develop trust..  

I am still watching the forecasts here off track,  but close enough, like in horseshoes.

> Bottom line, the forecasts are just amazing

Yup.  Sure amazed me recently.  

*All* forecasts said that Norma was going out to sea when I left La Paz *one week* before it hit and destroyed, damaged, or beached 60 boats.  

Models are just SWAGs, and they giveReasonable certainty" where bnone is possible.

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