> ... when I view the winter loss rate for Alberta for the 2011/2012
> winter, it appears to be 13% (
> http://capabees.org/content/uploads/2012/10/2012capawintloss1.pdf).\

Well, that was a good year and no test of our bees fitness.  Also, I 
doubt that is the real number if measured after all losses were counted. 
  Additionally, many beekeepers split to make up numbers and so the 
summer counts don't reflect the true condition of the industry.

We still have a lot of happy talk from CAPA this year, but I know a lot 
of very good beekeepers who had a very bad winter.  It seems that many 
of the Canadian nucs which were to be available for sale disappeared 
from the market as those who intended to sell them found they were short 
of bees themselves.

Also, what CAPA sees and what beekeepers see are not the same thing.
CAPA has political realities that are not necessarily aligned with the
industry.  For one thing they all have a government pay-cheque and want
to keep it that way. Reporting failure is not an option.

CAPA is strongly invested in opposing the resumption of importation of 
US package bees.  US bee packages were the historical foundation of 
Western Canadian beekeeping.  Admitting the true level of bee losses or 
the presence of the pests that are used as a justification for the 
embargo would undermine that position.

> Did something change in the use of canola seed treatments last summer
> that would account for your reported vastly increased winter loss
> rate for 2012/2013?

Besides the fact that different conditions result in differing 
distribution of the chemicals, the fitness of the bees is tested 
differently in different years.\

I've explained the concept of many times, but nobody ever gets it, so 
here we go again.

A drover loads a camel with straw.  The camel stands there as the straw
is added little by little.  Finally, sensing a limit is being
approached, but wishing to maximize the payload, the drover adds one
straw at a time.  All goes well until suddenly down goes the camel.

Which straw dropped the camel?  The last one?  Or all of them?

If the drover stopped one straw short, would the flawed strategy have 
been detected?  In the camel case, probably, but with bees, the breaking 
point is not as distinct.  Nor are the straws so clearly identifiable.

As previously covered when discussing HFCS and noting the fact that in 
caged bees (sorry, I know it is a lab test and therefore meaningless), 
bees live slightly shorter lives than on sucrose or honey.  Does this 
matter?

Most of the time, not really, since the new spring crop of bees is well
underway before the old generation dies of, BUT, if the winter is longer 
and/or more severe, and the period of time that is inhospitable to brood 
rearing is longer than normal, then the bees fail to survive or thrive.

I know that it is hard to understand from California, but up here, we
are out of the natural range of honey bees and anything that reduces the
fitness of our colonies can mean disaster in bad years.

Wintering is like leaping a chasm.  Anything that hobbles our bees means
falling short and death, and death is final.

If we make it across with vigour to spare, then no problem, but 
sometimes we have to grab with our fingers or we skin our knees on the 
edge.  Sometimes we just don't make it and fall to our death.

But there is something worse than death and that is a whole lot of
shitty colonies that made it through, but take all season to recover.

What weakens us?  We don't know.  Sometimes it is a slow spring, 
sometimes it is mite loads sometimes it is a summer dearth, and maybe 
sometimes it is chemicals in the environment.  At any rate, those of us 
up here out of natural bee range find any potential drag on our bees 
worth considering.

Somehow, I think some will still not get this concept.  I'm in the 
airport and not writing well.  Regardless, I can only give explanations. 
  I cannot give understanding and I apologise for that.

All I can suggest is that those who find this topic beneath them should 
just skip over it and concentrate on important things.

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