Nice post, Peter.  Thanks for those links.
 
It's been my off-hand, anecdotal observation that bees grow and expand exponentially, that is, a four-frame split will grow more than twice as much as a two-frame split.  How many frames I use depends on if I'm introducing a virgin or a mated queen, and how many more weeks before we call it a season.  I generally like to make splits with drawn comb just to give them a break.  As I make splits after the honey flow, I'm flush with drawn comb.
 
I'm making some splits now, in mid-July.  I tend to favor four-frame splits and add my home-raised virgins.  I favor virgin queens hatched in an incubator and direct-released into the nuc/split.  This way I know for sure the cell hatched.  Then I check back in 14 days before requeening a second time if necessary.
 
If I'm making a walk-away split, which I often like to do out of laziness and economy of time, I favor the six- to eight-frame split, then check back to see if I need to requeen in three to four weeks.  
 
I've made splits later, even in mid- to late-August, but I bought mated queens and generally split a double brood box hive into two fairly equal singles, adding a medium super of drawn comb to each before feeding.  
 
About the first of October, our weather dramatically changes and we better be set for winter, though we still have a number of nice days to feed.
 
There are many ways to do splits, as you point out, and so many variables that it's hard to narrow the process down to the "right" way.
 
Grant
Jackson, MO    

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