<Would NASA have ever put a man on the Moon and brought him back with a 95%
confidence interval?>

Should I point out Challenger, Apollo 13, and Discovery (and others I've
forgotten for that matter, I know one burned up on the pad)?  In fact they
have looked at the risks of early space flight and it's surprising that
there weren't more disasters than there were.

As to driving to work, I wonder what the confidence interval is for dying
in a car crash at some point in your lifetime, I bet it's higher than you
think and we still do it.

You might not play Russian Roulette with a 20 round chamber, but would you
play the lottery if you had a 95% chance of winning?  You can raise the
percentage if you like, but what would you be happy with?  Humans are
terrible at assessing risks on their own.  We close events due to lightning
and then drive home on the highway going 70+ miles an hour, you want to bet
which one is actually more risky?

Progress = Taking Risks & Possible Failure
No Progress = Guaranteed Failure... eventually

Jeremy
West Michigan

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