In recent years, we've noticed a shift from rule-based, linear thinking to a
point where we now understand our world more in terms of probabilities than
in terms of certainties.  The shift to IPM from rule-based treatment regimes
is one example.

I came a cross a quote at
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20030829/default.htm
that I think, with a little adaptation, can apply very well to beekeeping:

"Indeed, given our inevitably incomplete knowledge about key structural
aspects of our ever-changing (environment) and the sometimes asymmetric
costs or benefits of particular outcomes, a (beekeeper) seeking to maximize
its probability of achieving its goals is driven, I believe, to a
risk-management approach (). By this I mean that (beekeepers) need to
consider not only the most likely future path for the (hive or apiary in
question) but also the distribution of possible outcomes about that path.
They then need to reach a judgment about the probabilities, costs, and
benefits of the various possible outcomes under alternative choices..."

My substitutions are in parentheses.  Apologies to Alan Greenspan

allen
http://www.internode.net/HoneyBee/

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