Hello Randy & All,
> I'm in agreement with you on your almond assessment.

My assessment is based on the best information I could find. You are in
California so your information is perhaps better. I attended a presentation
by the AHPA vice president Jerry brown from which I received my current acre
& almond price facts. Other information came from direct talks with beeks in
California.
Strange situation this year. If the drought breaks I expect a complete
reversal next year and in fact am planning on sending bees .Which means
getting ready next fall and grading.
My sending bees in California without a contract, doing tens of thousands of
dollar pollination on a handshake and wintering in California are over.
Now I will only send when I know the price and the frame average needed and
when the hives go right into almonds. Also an exact date the hives will
return.
>
> The only question is the degree of final glut.
We will never really know in my opinion but many beeks did not get hives
placed. Some got a better rate from truckers bringing hives into almonds (
under contract) for shipment back to the Midwest. Price is usually 
negotiable
with most truckers.

> Prices in some areas were also higher--$160 was fairly common for 7 frame
> guarantee.

The growers which did not sign contracts ( looks like they saved big bucks
from where I sit) and picked up hives late for the most part paid very cheap
rates ( for 7 frames and better in places).  Many * handshake* beeks felt
obligated to reduce prices by $10-20 a hive to keep the contracts. Jerry
Brown said he reduced by the above amount and was even surprised himself
that the grower did not drop his bees and get hives for half the price.

My brother is a very high profile lawyer and he advised me the last time
this happened to simply get a contract. Also to beware that If you agree to
bring an 8 frame average and the graders say your hives do not meet the
agreement ( despite what you think the grade is) that the grower can break
the contract and pick up cheaper hives. This year the Missouri bees graded 8
frame and better but the agreement was for a 5 frame average.

Bees do not always do as the books say. For reasons we may never fully
understand some years field run bees can be bursting at the seams when
brought into almonds without ever have been given the first pollen patty.

Whenever a California broker tries to tell you what bees coming from the
Midwest in late January look like without looking he simply does not
understand Midwest bees. Some years they run five frames and others (like
this year) they are coming out of winter on 9 frames plus.

The difference in my opinion depends on a late wildflower flow plus winter
starting late. If the hive is prolific and raises a higher number of winter
bees then bigger clusters in January. If winter comes early and fall flows
are light then small clusters in January. Not really rocket science and I
believe I have a decent idea of the January cluster after my last prewinter
checks.

bob

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