As reported by Fell, et al in 1977, in Ithaca, New York, which some would
consider to be northeastern U.S., "There were peak swarming periods during
the first two weeks in June and during the last week in August and the
first week in September."

A colony with an aging queen about to be superseded in September, would
have little to lose, and everything to gain (genetically) if instead of
balling the old queen, pushed her out of the hive with a small group of
protective workers.

¶

When I first started keeping bees in Upstate NY I was very surprised by the phenomenon of late swarming. The swarms I have seen are not small, but full sized swarms. These usually occur if there is a heavy goldenrod flow. I came to the conclusion that they were responding to favorable conditions based on evolutionary memory. They have no "idea" that winter is coming and swarm out under the worst possible circumstances. Very often these swarms immediately store enough honey to survive but I have not seen one make it. Seeley found that only 25% of feral swarms survive the first winter in any case (here in NYS). Probably late swarms, the % is less than that.

PLB

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