> In March 2012 Henry et al. published a paper that explored whether or not the consumption of thiamethoxam via nectar could be a causal factor of Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) in honeybees.  In the second part of their report, they applied their homing study results to the honeybee population dynamic model devised by Khoury et al. (2011), and from that they concluded that dietary thiamethoxam intoxication may potentially contribute to CCD.

> This contribution highlights the influence of assumptions on model projections and the importance of making explicit not only any assumptions, but also how these influence outputs within a given model. It also highlights that the formula used to calculate [homing failure] is conceptually flawed since it calculates the proportional decrease in post exposure homing success given the control instead of the proportional increase in post exposure homing failure. Thus, Henry et al.'s (2012) model projection should not be used as the basis for any meaningful regulatory decision making about the potential risks posed by dietary thiamethoxan intoxication in honeybees.

Guez, D. Henry et al (2012) Homing failure formula, assumptions and basic mathematics: a comment. Frontiers in Physiology, 4, 142.

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