>The temperature seems straight forward, less than 43F which is about where
the bees no longer leave the cluster at all. The problem with that
temperature is it is internal to the hive.

This has been a great discussion and I am not going to kick a dead horse, or at least not much.

Bill hits it on the head. The temperature that is important is the temp in the cluster and its immediate surroundings. A large well fed cluster will generate the heat it needs to maintain the brood and move to available stores. If there are no stores it goes down hill quickly. So measuring outside temps is a poor analysis for in hive dynamics. It is a very good measure of a colonies ability to fly and bring in fresh stores so close monitoring of hive weight is important in middle spring during days, or alas weeks, of poor weather. 

It is pretty well established that the cluster heats its self and insulates that heat quite well, a few inches from the cluster will be ambient temp. Trying to raise cluster temp by insulating the boxes has little effect and in many regions is detrimental due to increased moisture. This could be different in high wind locations. My management practices come after a lot of experimentation over the years. If you wrap and insulate all I can say is do a half and half on some colonies and see if there is a difference. There was not one for me here except that I had increased moisture problems in the insulated group. Emergency feeding is of course necessary when a colony is in danger of starvation. Rather than putting 25# of dry sugar on in March or a candy board on in Oct. try getting the colony weight up with the same feed in Sept. The colony will put it where it wants it and save you a lot of grief.  

Fat bees, skinny bees. The colony conditions in late summer/fall must be conducive to raising a big crop of winter bees that can maintain a healthy cluster through the winter and raise a new crop of brood before they meet their maker. Poor winter bees will die before the new brood emerges resulting in a dwindling cluster unable to both warm the brood and move stores. A dwindling cluster will stay with the brood but they should not have to make the choice. Healthy colonies in my observation increase population from onset of brood rearing until foraging begins in earnest, around here early May.  

"All beekeeping is local"....Truer words were never spoken. Thanks Bill and all.

Paul Hosticka
Dayton WA 

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