> Any one have modeled a behive behaviour in terms of wind, temperature, 
> brood and consuption of stores over time?

I'm sure it has been attempted many times, but the problem is quite complex. 
I recall one analysis, years back, was that a hive could be compared to a 
chicken in a box.  Seems to me, though, that bees are much more variable in 
metabolism extremes than a chicken, and recall that they can go from very 
low energy consumption to extremely high quite quickly.

> with the south covered by a dense forest as a wind break from the 
> predominant wind.

A note here: In our region, the worst cold gusts do not come from the 
direction of the predominant wind!

> My top feeder can hold only 3 litres as maximun... A deeper feeder will 
> allow convection cells to form, increasing the heat transfer.

Leaving a top feeder on in colder climes can kill hives aroun here, unless 
it is filled with insulation or blocked off, since the bees may cluster up 
there.

> Winter is not that bad,  with a short 3 month demanding periods with cold 
> and rain. The maximun time without cleansing flight might be 15 - 20 days. 
> Probably with a wrapping I could use other (for now) marginal locations.

Coastal British Columbia is our closest comparison.  Beekeepers there 
usually do not wrap, but some beekeepers who bought bees from me have been 
wrapping with my single hive wraps and are seeing benefits. 

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