James Fischer wrote
> There are a number of countries that shipped little or no honey to the USA in
> 1999 or 2000, but shipped significantly increased amounts to the USA in 2001
> and/or 2002.

This is surely the market acting as just that - a market.  Someone can't
supply, someone else can......

The World produces around 1,200,000 tonnes.  Only 250,000 of this is traded.

There are certainly countries (like China, Argentina and Mexico) that
contribute a large amount of their crop to this trade.  But there's another
950,000 tonnes that can potentially be traded.  So Vietnam imports Chinese
honey (perhaps for domestic consumption, perhaps not.....) and exports
Vietnamese honey.  Quite legal.

The high prices at present are a result of the two largest exporters (China
and Argentina) being excluded from one or more of the largest markets, EU
(Germany) USA and Japan.

On the export side
China exports 85,000 tonnes average
Argentina has been increasing hives rapidly (at US $1,000 PMT Selling price)
and now has 2.8 million hives. Their average production in the past has been
around 33.5 kilos/hive, i.e. a potential *average* of around 94,000 tonnes
most of which is exported.
These two potentially contribute around 70% of World Trade.

In the Import side,
EU imports around 120,000 tonnes
US 60,000 tonnes (was climbing with a 80,000 year)
Japan 40,000 tonnes.

Exclude any one of these exporting countries from a major market and trade
will take a while to find needed supplies.  You don't just ring up someone in
Russia or Ukraine and replace the Chinese crop overnight.  The honey is there
and the trade can happen (mostly quite legally) but these things take time.

The most important thing to remember is that this situation is not because
there is not enough honey in the World.  It is because there are technical
barriers preventing current producers getting their products to their
traditional markets.  In fact the record high prices are depressing
consumption and increasing production along with encouraging the illicit use
of HFCS to cut honey (high return, low risk = greater incentive) which
increases supply.

The very trade Jim points to as "suspicious" is precisely what one would
expect from the market trying to balance the situation created by the
technical trade difficulties.

Enjoy the high prices while they last.  But don't spend the money just yet.
A low price backlash is inevitable when it all sorts out and we find there is
less consumption from lost markets, a lot of stocks, and increased production
stimulated from the high prices.  That money will be needed to weather an
extended  period of (perhaps very) low prices such as those that followed the
1986 100,000 tonne US stockpile being "released" to the market.

Regards,
Peter Bray
Thinking orderly marketing is better than boom bust cycles.
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