>Rather than "complicating the issue", I was merely pointing out

You said you favored a more complex, a much more complex analysis of the 
situation, implying that the complete absence of unusual pressure in 
almonds or on packages (on supply or, in the case of packages, also on 
demand) was misleadingly oversimplified.  I think it's absurd to discount 
two of the very biggest aggregate indicators when looking for the aggregate 
story.

>that your suggested "key leading indicators" (almond pollination
>and package availability) are inherently TRAILING indicators,
>rather than indicators with any predictive or tracking value.

You're absolutely right that they're inherently "trailing" indicators, and 
I believe that's what this discussion has been about: how badly overblown 
was the "trailing" reporting on CCD?

>Regardless, it does not reflect
>what is happening now.

Not exactly, but beekeepers' fears about the future threat of CCD are all 
viewed in the light of what CCD has done to beekeepers in the past.

>I'm intrigued that we have a small but very vocal minority who
>want to deny the plight of their collogues simply because they
>have not seen any cases with their own eyes.  Do you think
>everyone involved is lying, that the photos are faked, that
>there is some sort of widespread conspiracy to get funding for
>research work that is not needed on a problem that does not
>exist?

As for me, I'm not denying the existence of CCD at all; I would, however, 
argue with anyone that wanted to insist that overall losses from CCD last 
year (06/07) were clearly, beyond all reasonable margins of error, 2+% on 
aggregate.  The issue I've been addressing is the overall extent of CCD.  
It's not that people are lying (although plenty of beekeepers, especially 
of the like I mostly talk to, wouldn't know CCD from a hole in the ground --
 even then I haven't heard any more stories of holes in the ground than 
usual) or that photos are faked.  The point is that a thousand perfectly 
true anecdotes don't reliably prove the EXTENT of the damage CCD did last 
year.  What's your conspiracy theory on why I'm questioning the extent of 
CCD?

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