> Why go through the trouble of a model based on population size? You have 
> determine the population-brood ratio. It might be more work than sticking 
> to the old rule: when there are newly hatched drones in a colony swarming 
> will follow relatively soon. I would split when drones start to be 
> abundant.

Why?  Well, because it is good to understand what we are doing.  I have used 
many different splitting approaches, all based on the usual assumptions, and 
although they all work, I wonder if I am making best use of the resources 
and also minimizing stress on the bees.

I suppose that the stimulus for this question comes from Larry Connor's 
"Increase Essential" and also from Mel's articles at 
http://www.mdasplitter.com/.   I suspect that if I actually read all that 
material carefully again, I might find an answer, as I did in checking 
Winston's book.  Nonetheless, I have learned not to trust the first answers 
I get, and to examine the context as well.  This group often has insights 
which prove useful.

Of course the simple approaches work, but as I said I am wanting to 
understand how to optimize, and I don't just want to split once.  I am 
planning to split several times, as I did last year, but more 
scientifically.

Last year, I was 2,000 miles away and used the brute force method.  At the 
appropriate time in spring, I just called my daughter and asked her to break 
every colony in half and walk away.  She did that and I later repeated the 
process, ending up with 35 hives from 9.  This year, I want to see how many 
successful, robust splits I can make by the July 21st deadline, and I am 
planning to employ mated queens, cells, and not do the walk-aways.

As for understanding what I am doing being more work, I am not sure about 
that.  Maybe that is true in the short run, but in the long run, not 
understanding what I am, doing has proven expensive.  I've learned to think 
about what I am doing and, often as not, that thinking has saved me work and 
losses.

I go into my thinking on various topics of this nature in my diary as I work 
on them, so if the question was more than rhetorical and you have a few 
hours, you are welcome to visit http://www.honeybeeworld.com/diary 

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