>The two experimentally-determined rates of success (17% and 12.7%) are
remarkably in agreement, strongly suggesting that claims for 80% success
are exaggerated.

Many years ago I tried running ten marked virgins into the entrance of queenright colonies with plenty of smoke.  I think that it was Dee Lusby who claimed 90% (from memory) success rate in a post on Bee-L (from memory!).

The queens had been hatched in an incubator so carried no colony scent.  There was a good flow on at the time from oilseed rape.  Only one managed to replace the incumbent queen.

I have also tried re-queening colonies with protected cells and fared no better.

Both these methods are fraught with danger for the colony of course, for if the virgin kills the queen she still has to mate successfully.  She may also depart with a mating swarm, at which point the colony will possibly have no young larvae with which to rear a replacement.

I have concluded that it is far better to mate queens from nucs so that I can be sure that they are producing good brood before moving them on to production colonies.

Best wishes

Peter 
52°14'44.44"N, 1°50'35"W

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