Charlie, I've also been frustrated with the math not working.  However, the
empirical evidence on mite immigration is very robust, which means that
just because we can't explain something at the moment, doesn't mean that it
doesn't happen.


It also doesn't mean it does!!!

Lots of great minds would point out that if the math doesn't work you don't
have the answer yet!

Pondering this a bit more today Your math model shows some 1300 mites
increase in the fall.  That would mean that a colony that's exporting mites
lets say at a 20% infestation rate, would send your hive a bit over 6000
bees.  That's A lbs of bees, or about 2 full frames of immigrants from a
collapsing hive.  to get that we would need a 10 frame hive collapsing for
every healthy ones.....  doesn't seem likely to me.  We must be missing
something.

Keep in mind My goal is not to be argumentive,  just seems something's out
of kilter with this mass immigration of mites theory. Obviously there is a
spike in mite levels.  Although I have not done the work to see it myself,
I do not doubt you or the others one bit....  just the reasoning.  And maybe
there is something we can use in the answer.

Charles

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