However, as you've pointed out, it depends upon the ratio of low-mite hives to high-mite hives within flight range.  


That is the huge key!  While there are some places very crowded,  the vast majority of us have very little of that, It least in what Seelys work would indicate is problematic. Even with the large numbers of hives I run,  in my 3 county area,  haves are well isolated from each other except when pooled for shipping.


As you point out timing is everything,  200 extra mites in spring is a big deal.   Drift could be a huge portion of that. 

The real key to the math not working quite right is timing   here in the north the vast majority of hive collapses here in the north is during winter. Late fall and winter probably account for well over 60% of the mites collapses.  In this case the amount of emigrating mites is shall we say negligible at best.   Huge mite numbers her in aug,  usually make it till after freeze,  as you point out they are walking dead,  but they are mite bombs about to be entombed in cold.......  

  Your numbers and math are frankly  freaking awesome...  but I also suspect your trying to apply math to chaos theory, and the other key is location location location...    don't think for a moment I don't hope you can whip it into shape.   




Charles

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