> >When I started posting to this list, I was wondering whether or not a
> mathematical formula could be derived that would help us figure out what
> that "stress quotient" is.  If we knew how to do that, we could determine
> (maybe) how likely it is that a hive in a given environment with a known
> load of pathogens will survive.


I'm no mathematician nor statistician either, but I've been doing a fair
amount of modeling of bee population dynamics of late via Excel spreadsheet
(and am currently testing in actual hives for verification).  Due to the
extraordinary potential rate of growth of a healthy, well-nourished colony,
even small changes can result in large differences in a colony achieving
its full potential.

There is a good deal of pre-varroa, pre serious pesticide data on rates of
colony buildup, to which we can compare to what our bees are achieving
today.  Christina, I'm in complete agreement that "ground truthing"
involves more than simple survival.  I use the terms, "thriving vs.
surviving."  "Thriving" can be assessed by rate of buildup and eventual
honey production (provided that forage is available).  There are long-time
commercial guys who keep detailed records--such records are a valuable
resource, although I've not seen any scientific analysis of any.

I speak with many large-scale beekeepers, many of whom place huge numbers
of colonies in areas of intense agriculture and pesticide exposure.  Some
areas are considered to be "death holes"--colonies go in apparently
healthy, but then irreversibly go downhill.  I've discussed this at length
with ARS researchers and EPA risk assessors, to try to get them to help
identify the guilty factors.

Studies like Matt Smart's are a step in the right direction.  I feel that
we could likely get answers fairly quickly with additional well-designed
monitoring of sentinel apiaries from which weekly beebread samples were
taken to document exposure to pesticides (we'd likely need to expand the
screening to include some adjuvants, such as the organosilicones).

But it's difficult getting answers.  I'm currently involved in an email
discussion with state and federal regulators (and funding agencies and
university researchers) about trying to figure out why some beekeepers are
having serious pesticide issues in almonds.  Frustratingly, our regulatory
system is simply not set up for quickly figuring out what the problem is,
despite proposals that could likely do so quickly and inexpensively.  The
inertia and bureaucratic restrictions of our regulatory process drive me
crazy.  And this is despite there being plenty of good, well-intentioned
people involved.

-- 
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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