As to the theory that puts out the 91% thing for Mozart, I'm pretty sure
the whole thing was a satire, attempting to make fun of overspeculation
based on no evidence.  I could be wrong, however.  As an economics major,
I am continually astounded at the shockingly poor conclusions economists
get by running numbers through a computer and asserting them to be valid
statistical results.  It's like coming up with a computer model of the
optimal symphony.  But anyway...

My choice (and I am _very_ surprised no one has said it) would be
George Gershwin.  Stupendous talent, most of which remained potential
energy.  Look at his later compositions and forays into concert genres
and wonder what treasures he could have created.  It would have been
great for music, as we would have so many more masterpieces than the
handful of still-youthful concert works.  What a cross-over artist, too!
I mean, EVERYONE loves Gershwin.  You can't say that about a single
European composer (I'm thinking of the average Jack and Jills here).  The
most important loss, however, comes from the impact he could have had on
American music.  He could have been a brilliant star guiding many more
composers and creating an authentic American style that has some relation
to the listening public, as opposed to now.  Currently, we Americans have
a mishmash of styles that are so academic that one _must_ have taken 4
semesters of theory in order to claim in good faith to know the music.
Gershwin could have changed it, and he could have given much to the
American musical experience, which often eschews merely concert pieces.
Gershwin showed promise in the concert (and opera) halls, but he was
also a man of the people.  As Mozart/Beethoven, for ex., were.  Oh yeah,
Gershwin for me barely beats Mozart, who imo had even more potential
than GG.  Listen to Syms 40 & 41 and what was to come would have been
spectacular.  Frankly, Haydn never wrote music that sublime.  Cute, funny,
and well orchestrated and written, but not that sublime.  What wonders
would the world have seen had M taught Beethoven??? (Talk about flaccid
speculation...) Anyway, Gershwin wins because I am an American and want
very much for America to find its musical place once and for all.  The
Germans are doing all right without 70 years of Mozart.  Apologies for
the utilitarian calculation.

Robert Shaw
Wake Forest University
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