> At ambient temps above 13C (55F), a colony in a well-insulated hive 
> would likely use more honey than one without insulation.

But the key metrics have already been established and tested with thousands of colonies placed into indoor cold storage in the USA and Canada.

We don’t need "models" and hand-waving assumptions by mechanical engineering students, we can use hard data from a statistically significant number of colonies where temperatures and humidity can be adjusted and strictly controlled, 24 x 7.

According to the white paper published by Project Apis M. "Indoor Storage of Honeybee Colonies in the USA, Version 2.0" (pg 27, "Beekeeper Q&A):
https://www.projectapism.org/indoor-storage-of-honey-bees.html

"Ideally, temperature will range between 37-42 degrees F. Humidity is controlled in a range not to exceed 50%."

So, there you have it - if an insulated box will keep your bees above 37, but below 42, great.  If above, they will eat you out of house and home.  If below, the colony will suffer losses among the outermost bees.

As I type this, the weather station that Columbia U. put on one of the roofs where I have bees reports that the ambient temp is 42 F in the shade.  When I add in the solar gain on the hives on this bright sunny day to the mix, a typical hive will be well above that 42 F reading.

Today is the 19th of December.  The winter solstice is the 21st.  But I still have roses blooming!  Our problem is not the cold, our problem is the LACK of cold.  So, candy boards all around - otherwise, I will lose hives to simple starvation.

I keep waiting for my roses to go dormant so I can prune old growth, but so far, they show no sign of going dormant, and the 10-day forecast says 12/25 - 51 F... 12/26 - 53 F... 12/27 - 51 F... 12/28 49 F.

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