> I’m detecting a surprising lack of understanding of probabilities when it comes to simulation models. 

Let's not make assumptions.   Some posts are  made to stimulate discussion and draw out information.

The issue under discussion is not the models and their imperfections, but the reliance media and uninformed politicians and others place on them and the disasters results.  Models are useful tool, everyone knows that but tools are just tools and not fit for all purposes.

> Someone else made a point on this thread about lack of data about COVID virus and its treatments. I think that this is grossly uninformed. 

We know a lot, but it seems the knowledge is scattered and incomplete, and sometimes contradictory, but the amount of confidence, the hubris, expressed is scary. 

There are known knowns. 
These are things we know that we know. 
There are known unknowns. 
That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. 
But there are also unknown unknowns. 
There are things we don't know we don't know.

Donald Rumsfeld

'Nuff said.

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