PS.  At risk of veering slightly off topic, what inspired this  besides the widespread reliance on models for climate, finance, disease, and calling the output of models "the science"  is the fact I just spent $99 (US) on a weather service that  uses six different highly rated weather models, some with supposedly one hour and one kilometer resolution.  

All predicted  high winds here overnight,  today, and right now.   It should be getting very windy here right now. 

It was quiet overnight and is almost flat calm here now.  I look at the model right now and it should be blowing at twelve knots.

I know some here have built varroa and other models to try to understand and predict bee-related phenomena.  How successful have you been in prediction?  Back testing?

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