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Date: | Wed, 3 Jan 2018 08:51:46 -0600 |
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Best estimate by Dr Martin is around 2.7 times.
> If I use the numbers on the graph as success and then compare it to
> your spreadsheet, there is a huge difference in "fertile" mites?
>
The above is carefully accounted for in my mite model.
I see it accounted for, and do not doubt you, just still trying to follow the math and logic. Need to look closer to see how that 2.7 is factored into the formula, as well as still trying to follow the lower reproductive math. Again, not doubting, still pondering and trying to follow the bouncing ball.
>start getting more sperm during their one-time mating, or experiencing a sudden extension in survivorship at that time? I haven't seen any evidence of either >occurring, but please let me know!
speculation of course at this point. Just thinking.
But two questions pop out from your thought, do you really suspect that a onetime mating would only pass 8/10 sperm cells? And are we sure they only mate once? If so then why would they lay another male in the later cycles? Why not skip the second and third males in favor of a female if she's already mated?
Seriously pondering why our hives are seeing late season spikes of the magnitude we see. No, I don’t believe the immigration issue explains it all. The math just doesn’t work. As we discussed the early season measurement (mite washes) being inaccurate is the most logical, but as I see it there is still a hole in that, we see that SOME hives see that late season spike, while others don’t. So as such I keep pondering other possible reasons.
I don’t claim any special knowledge or insight, just something doesn’t seem to fit quite right yet so the brain is looking for something else.
Charles
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