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Informed Discussion of Beekeeping Issues and Bee Biology <[log in to unmask]>
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Fri, 22 Mar 2019 09:33:26 -0400
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From the cited work:

Statistical methods do not rid data of their uncertainty. Gelman (2016) says, "Statistics is often sold as a sort of alchemy that transmutes randomness into certainty, an 'uncertainty laundering' that begins with data and concludes with success as measured by statistical significance."

To accept uncertainty requires that we "treat statistical results as being much more incomplete and uncertain than is currently the norm" (Amrhein, Trafimow, and Greenland 2019). We must "countenance uncertainty in all statistical conclusions, seeking ways to quantify, visualize, and interpret the potential for error" (Calin-Jageman and Cumming 2019).

A core problem is that both scientists and the public confound statistics with reality. But statistical inference is a thought experiment, describing the predictive performance of models about reality. Of necessity, these models are extremely simplified relative to the complexities of actual study conduct and of the reality being studied. 

Statistical results must eventually mislead us when they are used and communicated as if they present this complex reality, rather than a model for it. This is not a problem of our statistical methods. It is a problem of interpretation and communication of results.

The goal of scientific methodology should be toward ever more accurate descriptions of the world and how it works, not toward ever more publication of inferences, conclusions, or decisions. -- Amrhein, Trafimow, and Greenland (2019)

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