Fischer > I'll compound the felony by doing some guessing of my own - I’ll guess that the key difference is larger and multi-generational families in AR, versus the massive number of people living alone or in couples (widowed elderly, young and no kids...) in FL. One infection spread to a lot more people "at home" in AR, and thus, spread more quickly. <
There are other examples of factors that are being missed in the math and models, similar to these mentioned by James, that are playing out in other states. A knowledgeable friend of mine moved to SD just as the high rates of infection hit the meet packing plants. He said that inside the plants, people had PPE, wore masks. The COVID cases and deaths were concentrated amongst the out-of-state laborers who came for jobs in the meat plants, lived in group housing.
In MT, as was seen in some SW states, our Native American populations on their reservations were especially at risk. To their credit, the nation's responded quickly. Unfortunately, multi-generational and distributed families works against the people at home.
Interestingly, in Billings, MT where I grew up, a prominent cliff is named Sacrifice Cliff, so named because two Crow warriors rode horses over the cliff to their deaths after finding a tribal encampment nearly wiped out by smallpox. Looking at the massive cliff, towering over the east end of the Yellowstone valley, it’s not hard to imagine such a thing happening. According to Shane Doyle - Sacrifice Cliff and a Deadly Pandemic (mt.gov; Indian Education, Montana Office of Public Instruction), there were three major smallpox outbreaks in the Apsaalooké community, the first in 1790, then again in 1825, and the last major wave in 1837. During these times of sickness and suffering, the tribe understood the importance of physical distancing and isolation in order to protect from continued disease transmission. Larger groups split up into smaller bands and families isolated themselves for months at a time. This practice of separation helped the tribe survive through the devastating illness.
As an aside, I almost ended up a victim of the cliff. In the 1970s, I was using a pole-pruner to clip branches from pine trees along the top edge of the bluff to test for chemicals emitted from the smokestack of a coal-fired power plant set by the river, just below the cliff. I could actually look down the throat of the smokestack from my vantage point. I was on a narrow ledge at the top of the cliff, on the side of the trees facing the power plant. I had just cut-off a large branch that fell into a basket mounted to the top of the 24 ft pole. Just as the branch fell into the basket, a sudden gust of wind pushed everything towards the edge of the cliff, me included. I came within a few feed of almost ending it all that day.
I remember thinking what an embarrassment it would be if they had to modify the sign - Sacrifice Cliff where two Crow braves and one stupid scientist went over the cliff and died!
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