Re three day confinement rule:

I have been mulling over what other factors may have been in play when my newly-moved hives were penned in not just for the three days of the mechanical barrier, but for a further six weeks by frigid weather, and then flew out and returned to their old locations. (The confinement period was period was Dec 6- Jan 23):

1) these, of course, were winter bees;
2) it was very cold so they were spending lots of time in a cluster, perhaps in a different physiological state;
3) aside from outside air temperature this also spans the darkest, shortest periods of daylight;
4) they were likely broodless, or nearly so, for most of the time.

Perhaps confinement (measured in units of days) works when the bees want to go out, but are mechanically barred from doing so,  but doesn't work as strongly (or at all) during periods when they wouldn't have attempted to leave, anyway. 

The practical lesson I took from this: when moving bees short distances (20-150 ft) late in the season, it very important to get the hives in place early enough so that there is ample time, while it is still warm enough, for most of the bees to orient on the new location. 

Nancy

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