I'm sorry Charlie--I have the benefit of looking at my model of mite populations--I'd be glad to share a copy if you have the time to compare.



As much as I appreciate the offer,  I am still trying to understand the inputs.  I don't doubt your math, not one little bit.  Normally when a I see a problem that doesn't work out,  its not the math,  but the starting measurements,  hence my goal to be convinced and understand that first,  I have looked at your basic spreadsheet,  very complex and detailed, hence my appreciation, but I still don’t quite understand a few of the variables.

Couple that with the fact I know you have been working on this a lot,  consider these questions and doubts,  not arguments!



A couple of things you haven’t addressed yet,  that I think should be out for all inputs, as there are several who may have points to add


Do you assume the same amount of immigration as emigration? Seems to me for the most part the majority of the year  that’s going to be fairly well balanced?  I do understand towards the end that balance may shift,  but early on logic tells me it’s a wash?  So if a hive nearby is collapsing,  then maybe we do see that spike?  Or since now those hives are actually robbing,  then do  more mites enter the collapsing hive??  So if you're I mite,  how does one as a mite,  know which bus stop is the right one?  Do we suspect the mites can determine which bees are from the dying hive, and which are from neighbors hives??
It appears to me if we assume hive A gains say 100 mites in May from a neighbor,  don’t we also assume it gave up a very similar number?  If mites are emmagrating,  surely its not a one way deal?



My thinking there is that its more like the titanic,  as a hive collapses,  I sure don’t see there being enough lifeboats for all,  seems to me a lot more perish than escape. Every mite for himself, and just as likely to end up on a homeless dying bee as a robber headed to the palace? 


Understanding your comment about all the mites in the brood,  but  as I see it were talking phoretics,  those capped ones are not part of this story yet?   If you do a mite check on a severely collapsing hive do you see numbers approaching 100%??  

From what I see of collapsing hives and PMS,  is a lot of capped dead workers as the number of bees dwindles, indication being that the mites didn't make it out either. Spotty brood and low numbers of bees.  So the question in my mind really is when does the emigration really start?  I just mentally don't see that happening until your down to just a few frames of bees,  not the full hives mentioned??


Much appreciate the time and effort you put into annoying (Yes I picked it on purpose) questions I am posing. I really would like to understand the thinking it takes to make this leap.

Charles






 

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